Probability vs Intuition

Log start: 2:52am June 12th, 2010

I'm going to share this post on facebook, but there are some previous posts that i haven't posted there, so check those out too if this is considered "good reading" for you... although, i can't grasp why this would be good reading for anyone, even myself... it's just mindless ranting sometimes, lul.

This post is dedicated to that nice asian man who i had a chat with at the casino.
that's right folks! Brian's maiden voyage to the casino. i went from being +65 to only +10 when i came out. at least i was in the positives lol.

A little story to that actually. i was actually DARED to go to the casino. blimey bastards making me go by myself to "test" it out. i hate you all and when i see you, you're all going to get a Brian Special drink mixed for you. ass hats.

So, the night prior to, i was reading on probability and statistics of these games to help myself out a little. i knew previously from playing texas hold em that it's not just probability, but i'm not high enough of a baller to be let on the texas hold em tables at the casino, so i had to settle for a few games that i knew about, and some other games that i read about for the next time i go.

funny enough, i lost money on blackjack... it seems like betting low isn't the way to go in ANY casino games and betting all the time isn't the brightest idea ever... lol...

I was standing for 2 hours at this asian table game called "Sic Bo" (asians use a term 大小 to call the game) looking at how everyone plays. ALL of the asian people were crowded around 3 of these tables, i couldn't make my way to the front row for 30 mins...
i analyzed the game slowly and slowly partook in some betting and that's where i got lucky and went up +65 on my 2nd bet, lol.

but there was this one time (where i didn't bet) that one die was stuck on the bowl thing and the dealer called a re-roll. this old asian man next to me had placed money on #5 and the stuck die was going to add up to 5 for him. when the dealer called a re-roll, he got physically mad, LOL.
and thus stars the chinese dialouge and narrative - the parts in quotes were said in chinese -

"the dealer is cheating! let me see a manager!"
the manager came over and went
"how are we cheating? everyone saw, everyone else is happy. relax"
*insert chinese curses here*
manager - "if you're not happy, fine, go play at the other tables, but don't cause trouble!"
and the old man turned to me and said
"my mind told me that it was going to land there, so i went for it... i was going to win BIG, ya know"
me - "too bad that die got stuck"
him - "they just suck... damn... now i can't feel the chi from the dice... bye kiddo"

and for a good 10 minutes, i thought to myself...
the feel of the dice... intuition... does that mean my probability was the wrong approach?

then i finally realized and in my head i went "LAWLS. yeah right... my college education so far teaches me differently."
but these people have probably been here for years playing these games, how can a rookie 21 year old come with the mindset of being better than everyone there?

so by the end of the day, i decided to settle that gambling is a cross between probability and intuition. you can't blind call everything, yet you can't predict everything with only statistics.

in texas hold em, you fold when you feel that your hand is shit.
in mahjong, you build your tiles according to the feel of the tiles.
in blackjack it's easier to go by statistics

i lost my train of thought... and after typing all of that out, none of what i'm thinking makes any sense...

but... probabiity and intuition, you must have both to win.
i remember a this table, there were these 2 asian guys in their mid 20's all suited up and they made 4 bets within 20 mins, all big bets, and they won all four. they won so much money i started to think to myself "intuition... if only i can get my hands on some..."

it sucks being a rookie at something, intuition can only be built over time as you play more and progress more into something. as a first timer, all i have to go by is statistics and probability... at least i know i have more of that than other people -_-
because i also saw asian ladies bet with their "intuition" and lose big too... so i dunno... i need to grasp this concept even more.

and omg... there are so many ballers at the casino -_- i was watching this 50 dollar minimum blackjack table for 10 mins, and this asian lady in her 30s was just betting like no tommorow, and then when she lost her chips, she just took out he LV wallet and exchanged 500 dollars on the spot and began to play again. im like wuuuuuut >_>

yeah... maybe when i have more of this intuition... but i don't plan to make this a habit or a profession... or else, what would a college education be for? LOL.
next time, it's merely going to be a past time and next time, PEOPLE ARE COMMING WITH ME.

Idiots.


Probability vs Intuition: you need both.


HakoneDayDreamer, can't wait to be a baller, lol.